Technical weekly: Steady as she goes

Fibo Quantum

Key Takeaways

·     Fed’s “QE Infinity” announcement has continued to fuel crypto bulls on Tuesday Asia as markets believe the global easing measures could further devaluate fiat currencies.

·     Data shows long-term BTC sentiment seems more positive, while short-term traders look less hopeful.

·     Technical suggests volatility in the altcoin space is set to increase in the medium-term perspective.

Market Overview

The bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has continued, as the US Federal Reserve surprise announcement of buying unlimited amounts of Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities to keep the borrowing costs at extremely low levels. Markets seem to believe that the coordinated actions from global central banks could further accelerate the devaluation of fiat currencies in general. This environment could favor bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for the medium/long-term. Especially at the time that bitcoin seems bottomed in the USD4400 to 4800 area in mid-March.

BTC’s long-term bullishness has been reflecting on the prices of the longer tenor futures. The basis of OKEx’s bi-quarterly futures has been staying over the cash price, while the shorter tenor futures were staying under. This could indicate the sentiment divergence between short-term traders (less bullish) and long-term investors (more bullish).

Meanwhile, a turn seems in the making in the altcoin space. The Total Ex-BTC Market Cap has formed a triangle pattern, suggesting a breakout could soon happen. If the positive sentiment in the overall crypto market was intact, that could increase the case of having a positive breakout, and major altcoins could benefit from that.

Price Analysis

BTC/USD – Retest of the lower 6000 levels before going up?

·     BTC/USD has been making some 6-hour higher lowers after the selloff in the middle of the month and now seems to have formed a triangle pattern, suggesting a breakout could be in the making.

·     The momentum has seemed somewhat slowing in the past 18 hours with the RSI has been slowing down, the MACD’s fast line and slow line have been moving closer to each other, signaling the rally momentum has been slowing. That situation strengthened the case of the price retesting 6100 to 6200 area.

·     If the support at the lower triangle remains valid, that could increase the likelihood of the continuation of the current rally to the 7500 area.

·     However, the current levels of 6400 to 6500 were some strong supports back in Nov and Dec 2019, and now it appears to be a resistance. It will be interesting to see if that can be turned in to the next support level. 

ETH/USD – Still lacking behind?

·     We’ve seen short-term opportunities in ETH/USD as the pair also formed a triangle pattern; however, the daily MACD initially produced a bullish crossover, that may suggest the upside momentum has been building.

·     Although the RSI and the UO may not providing much information at this point, however, if the RSI is able to produce a higher high in the coming days, that could strengthen a short-term bullish case for ETH.

·     If a new rally is seen, the high of March 20 near 152 could be the first resistance; this is also where the 20-MA is located.

BSV/USD – Rally running out of steam?

·     BSV/USD has been outperforming BTC, and other major altcoins as the pair have already traded above the 20-MA on a daily chart (not shown here) and the 6-hour chart (below).

·     However, the rally seems to have run out of steam. The RSI has produced a triple momentum divergence; this has been considered a strong signal that a trend is running out of steam while the UO seems to produce a similar signal. 

·     Besides, a MACD bearish crossover seems in the making.

·     The first level to watch could be the area between 150 to 153, which is the support level of early this week. If that is comprised, the price could retest the support at 130.

HBARUSDT – Sideway trading before having a breakout?

·     HBARUSDT has been mostly trading in sideways after the broader crypto market selloff in March, and the price volatility is set to increase as the pair has formed a 6-hour descending triangle pattern.

·     While the timing of the breakout could be hard to determine, however, 0.029 seems decent support for the pair, and the 6-hour 100-MA area remains a significant resistance.

·     Traders could take advantage of these levels for the short-term as long as those levels remain valid.